How will Bidens withdrawal affect the election campaign? Three questions about Bidens withdrawal from the election

 

Date：[2024/7/22]
 

On the afternoon of the 21st Eastern Time, US President Biden announced his withdrawal from the 2024 presidential election and expressed support for nominating Vice President Harris as the Democratic presidential candidate.
This is the first time since 1968 that a sitting president in the United States has given up running for re-election. Why did Biden withdraw from the election? How did the two parties react? What impact does the Democratic Party's "replacement of generals" have on the election campaign?
Why give up re-election
On the afternoon of the 21st, Biden announced his withdrawal from the election through social media. In a signed statement, he said, "Although I have always intended to seek re-election, I believe that withdrawing and focusing on fulfilling the duties of the President of the United States for the remainder of my term is in the best interest of the Democratic Party and the United States
Biden also stated that he will give a speech later this week to provide more details on his decision to withdraw from the election. Analysts believe that factors such as internal pressure, declining public opinion, financial pressure, and time constraints led Biden to make this decision.
At the end of June, Biden performed poorly during a televised debate with Trump, exacerbating concerns from multiple parties, including the Democratic Party, about his physical condition and re-election prospects. The New York Times believes that Biden has fallen into a "political crisis" as a result.
In the past few weeks, Biden has attempted to dispel external doubts through interviews, solo press conferences, rally speeches, and other means. The Biden team has repeatedly reiterated that Biden will continue to run for re-election, refuting media reports that he is considering withdrawing, but with little effect. More and more Democratic politicians, media, "big spenders," and voters are calling for Biden to withdraw from the election, and poll data is even more unfavorable for him.
In American history, there have been several incumbent presidents who gave up re-election, the last being Lyndon B. Johnson in 1968. But a CNN article pointed out that before Biden, no incumbent president had been forced to withdraw from the election due to physical condition.
What are the reactions of both parties
The Democratic Party generally praised Biden and his decision, and former US President Clinton and his wife, as well as other Democrats, also announced their support for Harris as the party's presidential candidate. However, some other heavyweight figures within the party, including former President Obama and Senate Majority Leader Schumer, have not yet endorsed Harris or others.
According to a poll conducted by The Washington Post this month, 70% of Democrats and independent leaning Democrats said they would be "satisfied" if Biden withdrew and Harris became the Democratic presidential candidate.
Upon learning of Biden's withdrawal from the election, Trump persisted without hesitation. He posted on social media that since Biden cannot continue running for president, "of course he cannot serve as president either. During an interview with American media, Trump referred to Biden as the "worst president in American history" and stated that defeating Harris was easier than defeating Biden.
Republicans have echoed Trump's views, and his running mate Vance, Speaker of the House Johnson, and others have called for Biden's resignation.
The White House spokesperson responded that when Biden took office, the US economy was in a severe recession, violent crime rates were soaring, and alliance relationships were broken, all of which were left by his predecessor Trump. Biden "reversed the situation" and will not resign, looking forward to completing his term and bringing more results.
How to influence the election campaign
American media and experts believe that Biden's withdrawal from the election has reshaped the process and focus of this year's presidential election, injecting more uncertainty into the campaign, and the "battle" between the two camps may become more intense.
The Democratic National Convention was originally scheduled to be held in Chicago from August 19th to 22nd, and it is currently unclear how the Democratic Party will select its presidential candidate. Although Harris has received endorsements from Biden and others, it does not mean that she can automatically receive the Democratic presidential nomination.
Officials from the Democratic National Committee stated that in the coming days, the Democratic Party will adopt a "transparent and orderly process" to select a candidate who can defeat Trump in November. The Wall Street Journal article points out that this process may be filled with "tension and chaos".
In some polls before Biden's withdrawal, he fell behind Trump, and in the "swing states" that could determine the presidential election results, the gap between Biden and Trump was even greater. Scott Trant, a political science data expert in the United States, said that Harris' national favorability is basically on par with Biden, which is not ideal. But Harris' advantage is that she doesn't have the "burden" of Biden, and voters will re-examine her.
In the view of Ian Bremer, President of Eurasia Group, a political risk consulting firm in the United States, although Trump currently has some advantages, there are still more than 100 days left until voting day, and "anything can happen", and suspense still exists.